Will F-commerce be the next g-commerce, y-commerce or imall.com?

Jun 04
2011
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I’ve been reading F-Commerce articles (one | another) the last couple of days (f-commerce is Facebook commerce), some with interesting perspectives that may change the way we shop and others with lots of opinion but little perspective of what has worked or miserably failed online.

Most people probably aren’t old enough or haven’t been on the internet long enough to even remember iMall or some of the other “major” online internet malls that were around in the mid-1990s. They all had the bright idea of centralizing the shopping experience in one location, just like our physical malls and assumed people would flock to them spending millions and billions.  Where are they now?  Non-existent.

Who has succeeded?  Those who centralized everything, like a big-box store, reduced prices and (this is a huge one) provided FREE shipping to compete with retail.

Other retailers have done well because they found their existing retail audience and have converted them to online.  Many have generated a new audience online, that they may have never seen otherwise, most of these are successful because they have a unique product, service or customer service model that attracts a crowd or they have a product that is not available in other geographic locations.

I know I’m generalizing here but look at the most successful online retailers and what ultimately makes them successful…DEALS!  Remember that everyone online is looking for a deal, no matter how wealthy, poor or frugal you are, you don’t get online because you want to spend the most on a product.  You get online because you saw those True Religion, Seven or whatever jeans that you want and there has to be someone online who sells them for $0.17. That’s what the internet is, like it or not.  The music and software industry losses hundreds of millions, if not billions every year due to piracy, not because people online don’t have money (don’t we average like $75+K/yr.?), because we’re all cheap bastards.

Fast forward to the Facebook generation…we’re all cheap as WTF, not because we need to be but because the internet has made us this way.  We all spend a large percentage of our day either connected to, waiting on or actually logged in, F(B)ing around. 600 million people and growing are on the site, stalking, chatting, connecting and advising each other about anything from family, to clothes, to sex, drugs & rock and roll. It is a digital high school or college experience all over again but this time without inhibition, boundaries or rules…other than “your mom (children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren or future children) might see what you put on Facebook.”

So what does all this have to do with F-commerce?  Not much, other than every retailer seeing that the malls are less full than they use to be. Where have those people gone, to Facebook? Obviously, since one and one is two, we can deduce that because large amounts of people have aggregated to Facebook they must also all want to shop on Facebook!  SO, let’s build a mall, it will succeed.

Again, I oversimplify but my oversimplification is only to bring up one simply thing, people are online for a deal. If Facebook is going to play mall cop (or landlord) then they better have some killer deals for retailers because the only way that mall succeeds is if I can’t do a Google search and find a better deal. I don’t care if all of my friends are sold, talk about it, “Like” it, love it, endorse it, comment on it or marry it, I’m not buying it if newegg.com, frys.com, ebay or amazon.com have it for $0.25 less and free shipping, it’s that simple. The ‘experience’ can be spectacular, the cart can be immaculate, the customer service can surpass even Nordstrom‘s expectations but I’m still doing a Google search before I confirm my order to see if there is a better deal.  Not because I’m a jerk, unfaithful customer, uncommitted brand advocate or because I’m cheap…because I AM AN INTERNET USER!

Example:  This week I got an email “early notice” from Groupon about the Old Navy deal $20 for $10.  Considering $20 at Old Navy buys you like everything in the store, that’s a killer deal. Within 4 hours of getting the email I saw no less than 10 people posting about it on FB.  Tens, or hundreds of people were getting access to this deal even though they had nothing to do with Groupon.  Therein is the power of Facebook; exclusive products, prices and offers can go viral in a matter of minutes, potentially faster than any other method. Success and whether the store needs to be within Facebook or not is only for the future and new ideas/innovation to tell.

I have personally programmed or managed the development of over 45 e-commerce websites for small to Fortune 500 companies (several) and the one thing I have learned is that the biggest game is in the numbers (deals). Many online companies survive and can have moderate growth through marketing and advertising, don’t get me wrong, you CAN succeed without deals.  BUT, companies see unbelievable numbers when they run that deal that you can’t get anywhere else and those companies that diligently work their suppliers to maintain a steady flow of deals, have a consistent, strong and investment-worthy growth rate. Sustainable is another question and concern…for another post.

Netflix, meth, money, McDonald’s and Johnny Knoxville

May 31
2011
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I’ve been on a documentary kick lately, watching several on Netflix and checking a few out on Redbox. I’m normally an action, comedy or stoner movie fan and that’s about it but a co-worker suggested I watch The Wild and Wonderful Whites, a movie about a mountain (white trash) family in Boone County, West Virginia. Johnny Knoxville was one of the executive producers (funded the show) and I believe, had a good part in reviewing, editing and approving the final release of the film. I’ll come back to this show and J.K. in a bit. Here are some of the other shows that I’ve watching in the last week or two;

  • Super Size Me - A farce of a ‘documentary’ that became an agent of change for the McDonald’s Corp. A man eats all of the happy meals and food that McDonald’s will serve to him (it’s not that bad but pretty close). The only science or facts in the movie are based on junk science, equivalent to the junk food. If you actually watched it, it was an exaggeration and dramatic representation of a real problem. Unfortunately the movie was more drama than reality. Fortunately, it got so much hype that McDonald’s actually did change some things but the movie didn’t fix the problem…the people who order and eat the crap on a daily, almost religious, basis.
  • Food Inc. - It’s an interesting documentary, very one-sided against modern meat packing. They don’t disclose the rates of disease, infection or bad, yucky stuff for those not following FDA standards but they make it sound like they’re a lot better. It’s a sad show but what’s more disturbing is that we all still buy this stuff because it’s cheaper and faster than the real thing.  Once again, they make the ‘big corporation’ look like the bad guy but don’t talk about who enables or drives them to this…you and me and the government/tax breaks that enable them. Lots of conspiracy theories and fear mongering, as if everyone in the U.S. has the same problems but the interviews are regional, not national. It all sounds great but unless you have the money to afford real, natural foods, it’s just a more depressing and humiliating show.
  • Bowling for Columbine – A parlay off of a horrible and tragic incident to dramatize faux-change by targeting a major national retailer as the cause or co-conspirator in an act of violence committed by psychotic and drastically disturbed individuals. What you don’t see are any stats about actual change other than a publicity stunt (PR terrorism/extortion – I think Michael Moore made more money from this movie than Wal-Mart lost in gun sales…tell me the real purpose of the movie again?) . If you couldn’t tell, my problem with the movie is that it’s extremely one-sided and declares a victory by hurting one company, not solving the problem.
  • The Cartel – A movie about how broken the public school system is, almost exclusively about New Jersey. This movie did try to show both sides but their scope was just TOO narrow.  This is a national problem and they missed the boat by focusing on a tiny number of state(s), when the real root of the problem is federal support. It will never change until you follow the money folks and it almost all comes from D.C. There is little (no) audit process once the feds give out the money, what do they expect! When you write a huge check and don’t follow up, don’t expect anything. When people start getting fired and going to jail for sucking at their job or stealing, then we’ll see change.  Corporations have to do it to survive, why not schools?
  • Marijuana Inc., Reefer Madness and Super High Me - I lump these all together because they’re interesting, entertaining and do an interesting job of exposing the ‘problem’ and the current proposed solution, legalization.  I recommend all three but will they impact you to the point of change…about as much as smoking a joint. No, I’ve never tried weed and don’t care to BUT I do care about Dave Chappelle and several other comedians who make movies like Half Baked. I watch these shows because they make those movies funnier and I guess they help educate me about something else I just don’t care much about, other than making me laugh.
  • The One Percent – a movie about and by a rich kid who can’t comprehend why his family stays rich, instead of helping the rest of the U.S. catch up…even slightly. There are chilling quotes/interviews about and by the wealthy in this movie as well as indirect, possibly inadvertent, but very powerful realities for those who are not independently wealthy. Here’s the hint…those who have it, think in terms of 3-5 generations when they consider money.  The rest of us think day-to-day or in terms of our lifetime. It does not consider the nouveau riche (new money) because almost all of them keep that other mindset and are broke before even their generation is over…they are irrelevant. A good show but zero solutions here.
  • Client 9 – Eliot Spitzer’s hooker story with some great back story about Mr. Spitzer and his accomplishments prior to his lambasting by other politicians, the FBI and Wall Street. It’s an interesting and sad story but the only thing it solves or discloses is that some guy made a mistake (big surprise) and others benefited, far more than his fall, by lambasting him and working with/through the FBI to get a story out. It’s interesting.
  • Methadonia – this is a sad and painful show to watch because you can’t really relate but you know it exists or know people who live this life. It keeps you somewhat disconnected because they don’t show an example of someone going from clean to methadonia, you just have to watch the end-game of these poor people. It reminds me of the 60′s  marijuana  movies where they show you the worst-of-the-worst in hopes of scaring you out of trying it.  I think the point of this movie was suppose to be the problem with the recovery system and drug industries solution (staying on equally messed up drugs). It doesn’t pose a solution, doesn’t scare you enough to act or wrench your heart enough to open your wallet and make change happen. It’s a real problem but in the end, I don’t feel connected or like I can relate to these people at all. I end the movie at 3am with a sigh…”well, that’s not me;” no bad dreams, no tears, no more than going to a Hollywood drama and walking out thinking ‘dude, that person’s life sucks.’
  • The Wild and Wonderful Whites of West Virginia – about a white trash family who one or two generations back had a couple of marginally famous southern tap dancers. The movie chronicles the lives 1-2 generations later and they’re (almost) all junkies, criminals, the worst representatives of ‘the south’ on the planet and look like real-life characters from Resident Evil (and not the hot ones). Here’s why Johnny Knoxville and the folks who did this movie rule…they didn’t try to solve a problem, didn’t try to expose an issue that the world wants to change.  They simply showed the lives of idiots and the fact that they survive and fight the good fight, just like the rest of us.  They just do it in jail, on drugs and while screwing each other’s boyfriends. It is a great example of life and the challenges we all face (not the same ones, I hope) and must overcome or plow through, just to survive. It’s life at its best (worst). I would say this is more ‘reality’ than documentary but the history behind their story may slide it into the category. Nonetheless, worth the watch.

So, what have I learned or gained from watching all these documentaries? I guess a couple of things; first, some are simply helping the guy shooting the film and don’t actually solve or do anything…other than buy laborghinis or Bugattis for the guys who carry or stand in front of cameras (what’s new there?). Second, is that life for everyone is hard, even for the ridiculously rich kid who can’t get over the fact that he’s better (financially) than 99.9% of us will ever be. Yet we all live it, we all move through it and we all make it out…dead. Some of us may remember more, do more for others, go to jail, be smarter, not be, have better adventures or choose to look at life as a horrible thing.  But we all have to do it.

How we choose to do it, look at it and live it IS the story.

Enterprise Wireless Apps Are Coming…Or Are They?

Aug 17
2010
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I was at a social media event this evening and the topic was mobile marketing. It’s funny because I started a mobile application company over 10 years ago and many of the same conversations that were going on then…are being repeated today.

Buzzwords were filling the room, mostly around the long-standing app vs. mobile web debate. Everyone who is ‘with it’ and ‘knowledgeable’ seemed to be pushing the mobile app agenda while everyone else just wanted to know why they need an app when the mobile web already provides the services they use and need?

Nobody has a definitive answer other than the app developers who enlighten us with: “you have complete control” and “because it’s your app, you can design and brand however you want.” My favorite answer is the non-answer, “oh, if you want to be legitimate or taken seriously, you need your own app.”  Are you kidding me? The decision to make an app or not should be based on real business issues or strategic decisions. Not based on the opinion of someone who can’t provide a valid business reason for building an app over mobile web app.

When my company was getting started the mobile web didn’t even have a strong structural base. WAP was just beginning to show up on all mobile devices and many people weren’t sure of it’s power or ability and the mobile browsers where rudimentary at best. There truly was a debate, do you build a full app because WAP + Browser did not = a real app, or did you build it yourself and know that it would work?

Today you have a solid browser that will soon support HTML 5, already supports GPS  tie ins, some video and will likely support Flash or comparable soon. In addition, you have much stronger, more stable environments, faster hardware and operating systems with true scalability.

The debate continues but does it really?

In reality there is a fairly simple decision tree for true enterprise level applications in the mobile universe:

1) Does mobile current support it (Yes, continue | No, go back to work).

2) Is your audience demanding it or do you have strong supporting evidence they will? (Yes, continue | No, relax, sit back and chill for a bit until you see how things shake out).

3) Does your ideal enterprise mobile solution have extremely complex logic or require a large amount of data or graphics? (Yes, continue | No, take your pick either a mobile app or mobile web app will work.  The real decision is how much branding and control you want over the application).

4) Complex logic and massive amounts of data/images or complex data integration with external  sources require a lot of processing.  Will all of your users have top of the line, 1ghz+ mobile devices? (Yes, continue | No, you need to wait or reduce your expectations)

5) With top of the line hardware the question is now the limitation of the mobile web browser. Current mobile web browsers are light and powerful. Even a light browser still will carry a weight on your hardware limitations. So the next question is, does your application require immediate response, under 3 seconds or can it take upwards of several seconds to get a full response? (Under 3 seconds on a mobile device is lofty and will likely require you to develop your own application. If you’re lucky, using their programming language but be prepared, you may have to learn machine language or just wait until the hardware catches up. If you are OK with a wait then you truly have the choice of waiting for the mobile web or saving a little bit of time and controlling the app interface and branding through your own app.

The reality is, and short answer to all of this conversation, mobile is NOT a PC or even a laptop. If you expect your mobile device to perform at the same level as your desktop or laptop, you’re dreaming.

If you are perfectly comfortable with this environment to work in then GO FOR IT! Just remember, your mobile device is about 7-10 years behind your desktop and 4-6 years behind your laptop when it comes to hardware.  So no matter how great the API, programming languages and tools are, you’re still driving a Pinto when you’re away and a Ferrari at home.

To be honest, my phone currently has a 1ghz processor which is just as fast as my desktop processor literally 10 years ago.

Don’t give up though, that 1ghz processor will still make you feel like speed demon compared to your phone just 2-3 years ago.

Social Media Gives Free Computer

Mar 11
2010
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So you are broke, going off to college, getting married, and probably solving the equation to the dynamics of the Earth’s rotation. You have one HUGE dilemma and short of winning a lottery, you are probably screwed. But wait, social media network can save your life. All you need to be is the sole followee of Conan O’Brien (@ConanOBrien) on Twitter who decided on random to pick one person to follow. Conan picked Ms. Lucky contestant otherwise known as Sarah Killen (@LovelyButton) who was getting ready to go to college and getting married. Now she’s appearing on Good Morning America, receiving a free Apple iMac from a stranger in Florida, and free wedding dress from a designer in New York. Sarah’s life is completely changed all because of one person following her on Twitter. How powerful is a tool that can make one person more lucky that winning a lottery. Now that is power my friend.

So when you kick back tonight and put on your Twitter status that you are reading wtfisonline.com, you can appreciate the power that is behind your fingertips.

tram@wtfissocialmedia.com

The Death of Social Media, Brought To You By The FTC & FDA

Mar 06
2010
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Before I start let me say that I agree with both the FDA and FTC (the big Fs), that companies need to improve their disclosure and honesty in packaging/labeling. I also completely agree with their initiative for bloggers and websites to disclose when they are getting free or paid samples from companies (as an endorsement or not) so readers know that there was a gift or transaction involved in the post.

Let me also disclaim that I am currently employed by one of the companies effected by these broad-reaching initiatives, although our upper management and lawyers have kept me out of it, thankfully.  This is not a company-sponsored, encouraged or sanctioned post.  This is my opinion and my opinion only.

Here is where the existence of social media is in serious jepeordy:

FTC.gov Online Endorsement Guidelines

“The Commission intends to treat endorsements and testimonials identically in the context of its enforcement of the Federal Trade Commission Act and for purposes of this part. The term endorsements is therefore generally used hereinafter to cover both terms and situations.”

FTC Warning Letter to 17 Companies

One of the 17 companies was specifically targeted for pure customer testimonials on their site (I wonder who’s lobbying was able to do that, only one of the 17?  Hmmmmm).

Let me restate.  I completely agree with fixing all of the mislabeling and dishonest labeling and hope that all companies will be honest about what they are putting in products we buy.

Here is where social media will die…the first time

If a consumer can be held liable, as the FTC says, for anything they say if they are given a product either for free or paid.  Then any comment you make after going to any big-box store, your local grocer or an event where you try a sip, taste or freebie will make you completely liable for anything you say about it.  What happens if you go to dinner at a friends house who forges steal for a company that makes pots/pans that made the perfect meal you just ate, do you need to disclose everything you ate, the brand of ingredients and everything associated with it or you might get sued?  The short answer is no.  But the issue is a very slippery slope and both the FTC and FDA are starting to hop on the slide.  Yes, I’m being ridiculous but my point is, there is a very fine line between keeping companies and the online community honest and making it impossible for everyone to do anything online for fear of the big F’s coming after them with unlimited consumer funding (because we all know they don’t care about how much it costs…us).

The second death of social media

The minute the big Fs (or big pharmaceutical lobbyists) are able to stop consumers from being able to voice their OPINIONS or FEELINGS is the minute we can all stop believing or hoping.  You see a testimonial is not scientific, it is not studied, researched, scrutinized or proof that anything will work, cure, save or solve any problem.  Testimonials are OPINIONS and FEELINGS by someone who had an experience with or about something.  Often times, testimonials are simply the only hope we have because research and corporations (pharma, usually) have failed or priced things out of reach and we have no other hope. For the big Fs to say that all humans treat testimonials with the same weight as medical research is presumptuous and an insult to everyone’s intelligence. I’d like to see how the study was done, who funded it, who lobbied to have the study done (who funded that) and exactly what the study questions and options to answer were. It’s quite easy for companies and/or the government to create survey’s, studies or research that produces the results they (or lobbyist) want.  It’s MUCH harder to produce a product that someone purchases themselves or tries at a friends house or in a big-box store, grocery store or at an event and believes in it enough to tell others…without compensation!

Compensated or implied-compensation testimonials are something totally different. I agree those should be disclosed. I’m talking about a pure testimonial, comment, post or article. If free sampling in stores or anywhere else can produce testimonials that hold both the consumer and company liable…how long will they last?  Who wants to get sued by the big Fs every time they do sampling because someone may find they liked the product or had a great experience with it?

I find the general premise of the FTC & FDA actions spot-on. The scope, reach and potential power of these actions is what I find disturbing.  So far I’m going to have faith that they’ll do the right thing and that they won’t over-reach either of their bounds and destroy social media for everyone.

I wouldn’t wait for my testimonial though. I’m going to hold out and see what the data and their track record show because  this is the health of the internet we’re talking about and nobody is lobbying me.

DISCLAIMER: The internet, myself, or any of you will not, would not, might not and/or can not become healthy by reading this. None of the claims made here are made by me, supported by me or  encouraged by me. This is for research and educational purposes ONLY, eating this article will not prevent anything, will make you gain weight and may force you to seek medical attention.

DISTURBING CONTRADICTIONS

Major Contradiction by the Big Fs Shows A Concern For Lobbyists NOT Consumers

Why aren’t the Big Fs submitting the same complaints to their own sister agencies making similar claims encouraging consumers to buy/consume these products (and these aren’t testimonials, some aren’t even  study-based) ?  Here are just a few examples:

1)  Department of Health & Human Services (referencing a CDC study): “Eating lots of fruits and vegetables is important for healthy weight and prevention of chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart disease and some cancers. And kids get better growth with enough fruits and vegetables.”  http://www.hhs.gov/news/healthbeat/2009/12/20091202a.html

2)  Center for Disease Control (there are pages of supporting studies and statements on this site): “Epidemiologic evidence supports an association between diet and several chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and several types of cancer (1-6).”  http://www.cdc.gov/PCD/issues/2006/apr/05_0146.htm

3) U.S. Department of Agriculture: “Fiber, fruit and vegetable consumption may help prevent cancer…The consumption of vegetables and fruit has always been seen as health-promoting. Historically, particular fruits and vegetables were thought to prevent or cure ailments ranging from headaches to heart disease. Studies spanning several decades have shown that people who eat a wide variety of vegetables and fruits have a lower incidence of many types of cancer than people who do not.”  http://www.ars.usda.gov/News/docs.htm?docid=10899

4)  The U.S. Surgeon General: “In contrast, consumption of fruits and vegetables in place of high calorie foods may reduce the risk for obesity and help sustain weight loss because the body’s sense of fullness at meals is partly regulated by volume. Fruits and vegetables contain few calories and are bulky foods, so they have a low caloric density and are more filling than fast foods.”  http://www.surgeongeneral.gov/library/obesityvision/obesityvision2010.pdf

5) U.S. Public Health Service (part of Department of Health & Human Services): “It is estimated that as much as 50 percent or more of cancer can be prevented through smoking cessation and improved dietary habits, such as reducing fat consumption and increasing fruit and vegetable consumption.[7][8] Physical activity and weight control also can contribute to cancer prevention.[9][10]”  http://www.usphs.gov/corpslinks/pharmacy/phpharm/hpcancer.html


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